Panama Canal dry due to El Niño

The US weather service NOAA warns that a severe El Niño is approaching. The Panama Canal is in danger of running out of water as a result. In addition, the influences on wind direction and strength, sea currents and the formation of hurricanes cannot yet be fully determined.

Dry

After severe El Niño-driven drought conditions in 2023–2024 forced the canal to slash daily transits to as few as 24 vessels per day and impose draft restrictions below 44 feet, maritime shipping remains highly sensitive to any renewed signs of water stress, particularly as other chokepoints remains constrained. The prolonged disruption rippled across global supply chains, driving congestion, higher transit costs, and widespread rerouting.

Wet by La Niña

The turnaround since then has been dramatic. A shift to La Niña and sustained rainfall restored water levels through 2025, allowing the canal to return to near-normal operations with roughly 36 daily transits and full 50-foot draft for Neopanamax vessels. By early 2026, Gatun Lake had surged to near maximum capacity, even forcing authorities to open spillways, marking an abrupt reversal from the historic lows seen just two years earlier.

Gaining strength El Niño

“El Niño” phenomena are usually accompanied by reduced rainfall across Central America, a dynamic that directly affects water levels in Lake Gatún – the freshwater reservoir that supplies the canal’s lock system.
The prolonged disruption had a knock-on effect on global supply chains, leading to congestion, higher transit costs and widespread diversions.
Scientists say key indicators, including rising ocean heat content, warming waters below the surface and possible changes in Pacific trade winds, are already being closely monitored.

While it is still too early to confirm whether the 2026 to 2027 event will become a super-El Niño, emerging signs suggest that conditions are setting up for a potentially significant climate shift later this year.
If the trend continues, the gaining El Niño could affect weather around the world through late 2026 and into the winter of 2027. This could lead to more storm activity in some regions, while others will experience warmer and drier conditions.

Transit slots and lower draught limits

NOAA now expects “El Niño” to occur by mid-2026 and persist until the end of the year, increasing the risk of another rainfall deficit during the crucial canal rainy season. Even a moderate “El Niño” could reduce water availability, potentially leading to fewer daily transit slots, lower draught limits reducing cargo loads, and higher auction prices for priority transit.
The uncertain factor remains intensity. NOAA estimates the probability of a very strong “El Niño” at about 25%, a scenario that would significantly increase the likelihood of new disruptions in the channel.

Sources: Safety4Sea and G Captain.
Lead photo: Britannica

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