IMO waters down zero-emission targets
The proportion of ships in the global order book capable of running on scalable zero-emission fuel has fallen from 9.5 per cent to 5.7 per cent. The reason: pressure from the IMO is steadily waning.
This decline highlights the growing gap between the shipping industry’s technical readiness and its willingness to invest capital in the run-up to crucial IMO discussions in December.
The shipping industry is making tangible progress in the field of alternative fuel technology, but weaker signals regarding orders, financing and regulation are putting increasing pressure on the 2030 fuel transition target.
A new assessment by the UCL Energy Institute and the Getting to Zero Coalition reveals that ships suitable for scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF) account for just 5.7 per cent of total tonnage on order, down from 9.5 per cent a year earlier.
This decline is occurring despite significant progress in other areas.
Regulatory delays are affecting the order book
At the heart of the uncertainty lies the IMO Net-Zero Framework.
The IMO member states approved the draft framework during MEPC 83 in April 2025, which combines a standard for marine fuel with a pricing mechanism for greenhouse gases. Formal approval was due to take place later that year, but negotiations were suspended in October 2025 due to differences of opinion between governments.
This delay is significant because ships ordered today are likely to remain in service well into the 2040s.
Shipowners are therefore faced with decisions regarding engines, fuel systems and additional capital costs without knowing exactly what global CO₂ requirements – and the relative economic aspects of conventional and zero-emission fuels – will look like.
This has direct consequences for shipbuilders and suppliers of marine equipment. For Chinese shipyards in particular, decisions by international shipowners regarding methanol, ammonia and fuel-ready designs will not only determine ship specifications, but also the demand for engines, fuel storage systems and associated equipment in order books extending to the end of the decade.
The report does not suggest that the development of alternative fuels has come to a standstill. Rather, it points to a divergence: infrastructure and technology are making progress, whilst commercial commitments are losing momentum.
December will be the next test
According to the IMO’s 2023 greenhouse gas strategy, zero-emission or near-zero-emission technologies, fuels and energy sources must account for at least 5 per cent – with a target of 10 per cent – of energy consumption in international shipping by 2030.
The regulatory timetable is now once again focusing on the end of this year.
The next meeting of the IMO Working Group on Greenhouse Gases is scheduled for 23–27 November, followed by MEPC 85 from 30 November to 3 December. The postponed extraordinary MEPC session is expected to resume on 4 December, subject to discussions during MEPC 85.
With just four years to go until 2030, these negotiations will influence investment decisions that extend far beyond fuel producers alone.
For shipowners, shipyards, engine manufacturers and lenders, the question is increasingly less about whether zero-emission technology can be built, but whether the regulatory and commercial signals will be strong enough to persuade companies to order it on the required scale.
Source of text and image: Xindemarinenews.
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