Gavin Allwright: 40-50% global fleet will have wind power by 2050

Speaking at the SAFETY4SEA Hamburg Forum 2024, Gavin Allwright, secretary general of the International Windship Association (IWSA), gave a comprehensive exploration of wind propulsion and its crucial role in reducing shipping emissions.

“Imagine this: if you supply units of energy to a wind turbine and then use that energy to produce fuels that are then burned and used to propel a ship, you might only get one or two units of energy out of it for propulsion. Wind propulsion, on the other hand, is direct and efficient, with 10 units of energy input resulting in 10 units of propulsion output. For the past 100 years, we have relied heavily on fossil fuels, but now we are talking zero emissions and zero costs. Wind power itself is free – it is delivered directly to the vessel at the point of use, with no mining, refining, transportation, bunkering or on-board storage required. With wind propulsion, no additional infrastructure is needed and the price of wind power is stable and predictable at zero.

Changing winds

Wind conditions can change, especially if the wind is not constant. People often approach me with the idea that sometimes the wind does not blow, and this is a legitimate consideration. In wind-assisted ships, the contribution of wind to propulsion energy can vary from 5% to 20%, possibly even 30% if averaged. But with optimisation in mind, especially in the design phase of new ships that focus on wind as the primary propulsion source, the energy contribution of wind can reach much higher percentages – 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and even 90% on certain routes. There are even ongoing projects exploring the concept of climate-positive ships that generate more energy than they consume, with excess energy stored on board in the form of hydrogen.

Paradigm shift

This potential paradigm shift towards wind propulsion should be recognised, in addition to the fact that these innovations are not without cost. While no development time is needed as there are already 13 different options on the market, it is important to note that these technologies are not free. The advantage lies in compatibility; whether you choose wind-powered ships with ammonia, methanol or other fuel combinations, there are no compatibility issues.
These wind propulsion systems require no additional crew due to their high level of automation, and if a leasing system or a pay-as-you-save financing model is applied, the upfront capital outlay can be virtually zero. Most systems are deck-installed and lend themselves to a leasing model. One of our members has already signed an agreement with Mizuho Banking Group to offer leasing options. Costs are covered by the fuel savings achieved, which means no or limited initial costs.

Positive response

We conducted a survey within the industry and among policymakers, which included wind drive as one of five options, to gauge the expected energy mix for 2030 and 2050. In such surveys, wind propulsion is usually overlooked because it is only seen as an energy efficiency measure and not as a major propulsion solution. But when wind propulsion was included, the response was overwhelmingly positive, with expectations of stronger adoption in 2030 for wind-assisted systems and a wave of newly designed ships with primary wind propulsion in 2050.
While these results are not definitive, they do give an indication of a transition path that is becoming increasingly attractive to the industry. We currently have about 36 installations, with four more expected this month and one more scheduled for next week. We also have 12 vessels that are wind-ready, which means that the basic work and radar modifications have been completed and installations are likely to follow later this year or later.

Doubling

We expected a doubling of our installations in the past year, and we succeeded. Extrapolating further, the EU forecasts between 3. 700 and 10. 700 installations by 2030, although this was predicted before 2018 and the first IMO decarbonisation strategy. The UK government has gone even further, predicting that 40% to 45% of the global fleet will have some form of wind propulsion by 2050. We believe both estimates are conservative.”

Read the entire article on the Safety4Sea website.

Windassist sponsor